On September 28, the 23rd Annual Meeting of the Valdai Discussion Club opened under the theme “Responsibility for the Future: Limits of the Possible, or Limitless Possibilities?”. The conference began with the presentation of a new Valdai Report titled “Keep Calm: The State and Responsibility for the Future.” (Source: Valdai Discussion Club)

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Editor' s Note

Ahead of the 23rd Annual Meeting of the Valdai Discussion Club, the Valdai Club and the Center for Russian Studies of East China Normal University jointly convened a China‑Russia seminar in Moscow, Russia on 27 September 2026. Feng Wei, Vice Chairman of the China Institute for Innovation and Development Strategy, was present and gave a speech during the seminar. 

Against the backdrop of “changes unseen in centuries”, the world today is plagued by mounting chaos and pervasive uncertainties. Drawing lessons from history when China endured heavy external pressures coupled with the collapse of the Soviet Union, the speech revisits the strategic wisdom of “Observe calmly; keep our footing; respond with composure” and staying focused on our own undertakings. It expounds China's philosophy of peaceful development, which is embedded in China's Constitution and Party documents, and highlights China's core strategic certainty: pursuing its own continued peaceful rise while advancing the collective rise of the Global South.

The speech illustrates such certainty through China's consistent Five‑Year Plans domestically and the Four Global Initiatives internationally. It also analyses major‑country dynamics covering China‑US ties, Europe's strategic anxieties and China‑Russia coordination. Concluding with the proposition of meeting global uncertainties with China's strategic certainty, the piece echoes Valdai's conference theme and offers Chinese perspectives for navigating global turbulence.

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China’s Strategic Certainty and New Shifts in Global Transformation

（Feng Wei，2026.09.27）

If we can use one word to describe the world today, it’s chaos. Thirty-five years ago, we faced a similar situation: The Soviet Union collapsed, the socialist bloc fell apart, and China was under sweeping sanctions from the United States and the West. Back then, we were under overwhelming pressure from all sides. And Francis Fukuyama excitedly proclaimed the “end of history”.

Faced with this grim situation, China’s wiseman, Deng Xiaoping, offered his advice to China’s leadership: “Observe calmly; keep our footing; respond with composure. Keep calm and focus on doing one thing well ---- our own thing.”

Following this guidance, China held its ground. We prioritized economic development, pressed ahead with reform and opening‑up, and through decades of unremitting efforts, achieved peaceful rise up to this day.

Looking back, when the then Chinese leader said we should“ focus on doing one thing well ----our own thing”, essentially what he meant was to ensure China’s peaceful rise.

That’s exactly what China said and what China did over the past half century. As Zheng Bijian, the chief architect of China’s peaceful rise concept, once put it: we want peace, and we want rise as well.

“Peaceful development” is the official expression of China’s “peaceful rise” philosophy. It is written into the Constitution of China and the Constitution of the Communist Party of China. As President Xi Jinping has stressed: “China’s path of peaceful development is no temporary tactic, still less empty diplomatic wording. It is a conclusion drawn from an objective assessment of history, reality and the future, and it unites our firm belief and consistent practice.”He also pointed out: “We must always stay committed to peaceful development, firmly safeguard world peace and stability, and work with all countries to build a community with a shared future for mankind.”

Today we find ourselves in a global chaos once again ---- what we describe as “changes unseen in centuries”. Uncertainty has become the order of the day. What’s happening to the world? What should we do? Mankind finds itself at a loss once more.

Yet I am not pessimistic. There is still hope for our world, and a major source of that hope is China’s strategic certainty.

From China’s perspective, the defining feature of world history today in the first half of the 21st century is the collective rise of the Global South, with the vast number of developing countries as its main body，and China is part of this group. This, coupled with the relative decline of US hegemony, forms the great transformation of our times.

What does China want? In the first half of the 21st century, China will focus on doing one thing well, that is to ensure China’s continued peaceful rise, and at the same time, to advance the collective peaceful rise of Global South. And we also expect to see the peaceful re-development of the developed countries, including the US and Europe.

This, then, is China’s greatest strategic certainty. And what we want is to meet the world’s uncertainties with China’s strategic certainty.

China’s strategic certainty shows itself in many ways. One typical example is to consistently carry out Five-Year Plans. We believe development is of overriding importance. So we keep drawing up and carrying out five-year plans for economic and social development, ensuring that the progress of Chinese modernization stays firmly on track without interruption. We are now entering the 15th Five-Year Plan. We aim to complete another three to four five-year plans, so that by the middle of this century, we can hope to fully realize Chinese modernization. No matter how chaotic the world may become, this national goal will remain unchanged. This is the certainty of China’s domestic strategy.

Externally, President Xi Jinping has put forward the Four Global Initiatives. Their core vison is to build a community with a shared future for humanity by pursuing common security, advancing common development, promoting mutual understanding and improving global governance, so as to address the deficits in these regards and achieve peaceful rise or peaceful development of all countries with China. No matter how chaotic the world turns out to be, China’s determination to pursue this goal will remain unchanged. This is the certainty of China’s international strategy.

Today’s world is full of uncertainties. China’s strategic certainty can help keep major‑country relations on the right track, and underpin the overall global peace and stability.

The United States is the biggest source of uncertainty in the global shifts. China-US competition will be there for a long time to come. Forces within the US seeking to contain China will not back down easily. Even so, with China’s firm strategic certainty, there is realistic hope that China and the U.S. can manage the rivalry without a breakdown. There is realistic possibility to build a constructive relationship of strategic stability based on respect, fairness and reciprocity, by keeping competition within bounds and differences in control. After all, it takes two to quarrel. The recent successful visit of President Xi Jinping to Washington is yet another proof. So long as China-US relations are stabilized, there will be limits to how chaotic the world can get.

Europe is more or less in a state of strategic anxiety. To exaggerate a little bit, Europe is facing three “wars” now. First, the Ukraine war in which it’s deeply trapped. Second, the tariff war imposed on it by Trump. Third, the “economic war” with China that Europe brought upon itself— or to be more precise, economic and trade frictions with China. These three “wars” combined, leave Europe with a strong sense of insecurity. I do not know how Europe sees this tariff conflict from the United States, but this hardly looks like the behaviour one would expect among allies. It can scarcely make Europe feel at ease. As for the Ukraine conflict, in the long run, if Europe wants lasting security, it must fundamentally find a way to live in peace with Russia. As for China, as I said earlier, China’s policy toward Europe has always been consistent and clear‑cut. We firmly believe there are no fundamental geopolitical clashes between China and Europe. Existing economic‑trade frictions can absolutely be worked out step‑by‑step through talks and negotiations. We can jointly explore and build a community of shared interests suited to the new historical reality. Admittedly, this will take some time. Right now, populist and far‑right forces are on the rise across Europe. This is a political reflection of the collective anxiety stemming from Europe’s sense of insecurity, and this trend is still unfolding in profound ways. If Marine Le Pen wins the French presidential election next year, the EU may end up with either a Trump “the disruptor”, or a Meloni “the pragmatist”. No‑one can tell for sure; the outcome remains wide open.

So what should we do? Perhaps the best approach is still to keep calm, and focus on doing one thing well----our own thing. As President Xi Jinping has pointed out, we may encounter rough seas and even towering waves on our way forward. Yet as long as we avoid making any catastrophic mistakes, we can remain invincible.

Judging from the title of this year’s annual report of Valdai Club ---- Keep Calm: The State and Responsibility for the Future, our Russian colleagues are thinking along much the same lines as we are. With a mature, steady and resilient China-Russia partnership independent of outside interference, we can hope to bring far greater certainty to this chaotic world.